Open Championship betting preview
The final major of the season takes place this week with the world's best golfers descending on Merseyside to challenge for the Claret Jug at Hoylake. Royal Liverpool was last used on the Open rota in 2014, with Rory McIlroy winning the third of his four major championships. Typically viewed as one of the easiest links courses for the Open, only the conditions can put a limit on the scoring. The forecast is not too penal though with rain softening the course and only moderate winds expected across the four days. Avoiding the penal bunkers across the course will be vital in contending this weekend.
Hoylake will play to 7,383 yards as a par 71 this year with the course featuring a new par three 17th hole measuring 140 yards. Experience of links golf is undoubtedly a significant advantage and this major is the one most likely to be won by a veteran golfer. An ability to handle the difficulties of an unfavourable draw with the worst of the weather could also be necessary. It is likely the champion will have shown form lately, with recent confidence important in narrowing down the shortlist.
McIlroy produced a masterclass nine years ago and the Northern Ireland superstar is backed to justify favouritism and end his wait for a fifth major championship this weekend. The world number two, who is narrowly preferred to the outstandingly consistent Scottie Scheffler, returns to Hoylake with a spring in his step after a stunning win on Sunday at the Scottish Open. McIlroy, who led the field from tee to green, coped with exceptionally strong winds on the final day with a brilliant birdie burst edging out Robert MacIntyre. This continued a superb run of form, with six successive top nine finishes, including second place at last month's US Open.
Only a series of near misses in recent years have denied McIlroy from getting his hands on another major. The 34-year-old was third last year at the Open held at St Andrews, one of six top tens at this tournament. McIlroy played with such freedom in Scotland last week and all aspects of his game appear to be in mint condition at just the right time. Ranked second for strokes gained tee to green and off the tee this season, McIlroy will be hard to keep out of the frame this week. He led wire to wire, shooting 17-under-par, in his 2014 triumph and the 7-1 favourite can delight the crowds by repeating the feat on Sunday.
Cameron Smith returned the Claret Jug on Monday but the laid back Australian is backed to give himself a huge chance of successfully defending the Open this week. Smith surged up the leaderboard with a barrage of birdies last year to deny McIlroy at St Andrews and his brilliant touch on and around the greens is a major asset at this tournament. Smith has had plenty of time to prepare at Hoylake and is extremely confident about the state of his whole game.
Smith has shaken off any rust at the start of the year and the LIV golfer heads into this week off an eye-catching set of results. Ninth place at the PGA Championship was a step in the right direction and fourth at last month's US Open in Los Angeles was a big pointer for his progress. Smith proved this by winning LIV Golf London earlier this month and his scoring average of 68.19 on the tour this season is unsurpassed. With Smith's confidence in the long game at a career high, it would be no surprise if he goes low this week and is a strong each way selection at 16-1.
Viktor Hovland has knocked on the door in recent majors and the Norwegian rates a strong contender for glory at Royal Liverpool. Hovland has established an impressive record at the Open already, with 12th place on debut at Sandwich and fourth 12 months ago after sharing the lead heading into the final round. Hovland has built on that this season, with seventh at the Masters and joint runner-up at the PGA Championship at Oak Hill Country Club.
Hovland secured his biggest PGA Tour title this summer, with his victory at the Memorial last month in a playoff. He comes in slightly under the radar, after three successive top 30 finishes, but holds all the credentials to flourish at Hoylake. Hovland has excelled at coastal courses, with wins in Puerto Rico, Mexico and the Bahamas highlighting windy conditions hold no fears for the world number five. Fifth on tour for total driving, Hovland's long game class marks him down as a confident bet for the Open at 20-1.
Shane Lowry has already won the Open, after his popular triumph at Royal Portrush in 2019 and the Irish golfer looks well equipped to contend again this week. Lowry's first major top ten arrived at Royal Liverpool in 2014, with a closing 65 helping him finish ninth. He returns a major champion and with a solid buildup which suggests he is close to peaking at the perfect time.
Lowry has claimed five top 20s in his last six tournaments, which includes 12th at the PGA Championship and 20th at the US Open. The 36-year-old caught fire during the middle of the Scottish Open, with only a disappointing final round resulting in him slipping down to 12th. Significantly, Lowry found his confidence across the week with the flat stick as he ranked third for strokes gained putting. With his typical strength around the greens well suited to handling a breeze, Lowry can hang tough if the weather turns and should be a factor at 33-1.
Robert MacIntyre produced a sensational final round at the Scottish Open on Sunday, with the home hope desperately unlucky not to win. MacIntyre handled the fierce winds superbly and shot a final round 64 which included a remarkable birdie on his final hole. The 26-year-old did absolutely nothing wrong and only an extraordinary finish from McIlroy denied him the biggest win of his career. The performance has to give him great encouragement and was a major step in his goal of qualifying for Europe's Ryder Cup team.
MacIntyre heads to Hoylake with great confidence after his effort in Scotland followed on from fourth place at the Made in Himmerland. His Open record is impressive with sixth in his first outing at the 2019 edition at Royal Portrush. MacIntyre was also eighth two years ago at Royal St George's. To add to his links pedigree, he was second at the British Masters at nearby Hillside in Southport four years ago. A much more complete player now, MacIntyre appeals as an each way proposition at 66-1.
Brian Harman brings encouraging form to Hoylake and could be the pick of the outsiders this week. Harman tied for second at last month's Travelers Championship and was ninth at the Rocket Mortgage Classic. The experienced American contended for most of the week at the Scottish Open with a challenging final round dropping him down to 12th. His last 12 rounds have resulted in him shooting a combined 45-under-par.
Harman is a short hitter but the strategic test of Hoylake sets up well for him. His Open debut came here nine years ago and he performed creditably with a top 30 finish. The lefty recorded his best finish at the major 12 months ago with sixth place at St Andrews and was also inside the top 20 at Royal St George's. Harman, who is seventh for scrambling and second for bogey avoidance this season, could easily outrun his odds at 100/1 each way.
Staking Plan
Rory McIlroy 7-1 to win
Cameron Smith 16-1 each way (18-1 antepost)
Viktor Hovland 20-1 each way (25-1 antepost)
Shane Lowry 33-1 each way
Robert MacIntyre 66-1 each way (80-1 antepost)
Brian Harman 100-1 each way (125-1 antepost)
