The Open Championship betting preview
The Open Championship is back for the first time since Shane Lowry's 2019 triumph as the best players in the world head to Sandwich. Last year's tournament was delayed until this summer, due to the pandemic, with 32,000 fans attending each day this week in Kent.
Royal St George's is regarded as one of the most demanding courses on the Open rota. The 7,189-yard par 70 has flummoxed golfers in the past with quirky bounces leading to some players questioning the fairness of the test. Heavy rain in the leadup has softened the course but dry conditions over the four days should firm up the fairways and greens. The wispy rough is thick and set to punish errant drivers.
Darren Clarke triumphed as a 42-year-old at the last Open held here in 2011. Clarke's hugely popular win was spearheaded by his ball striking as he was among the leaders in greens in regulation. This looks a key stat with players needing confident approach play to handle the challenging layout. Links experience is also beneficial with a low ball flight advantageous as a moderate breeze, with strong gusts, is expected throughout the tournament.
Jon Rahm is the short-priced favourite this week with the Spaniard strongly backed in the market at 8/1. Rahm broke through for his first major at last month's US Open and is likely to feature. But he has yet to record a top ten at the Open and there is little interest in taking him at cramped odds.
Preference is for a player at double the price and the undoubted king of majors. Brooks Koepka has been the man to beat in the biggest events over the last few years and looks bound to feature prominently on the leaderboard again this weekend. The American has won four of the last 15 majors he has competed in and 11 of these resulted in a top ten. Koepka was second at Kiawah Island at this year's PGA Championship and fourth at last month's US Open at Torrey Pines.
Koepka is an incredible 81-under-par in the majors since 2016 - 63 shots better than the next best player. This highlights his exceptional record on the big stage and the 31-year-old, who was fourth at the last Open, thrives in majors with his confidence and focus superior to most of his peers. Koepka's fitness is improving after knee surgery in March and he comes in well rested after not competing since fifth place at the Travelers Championship in June. Koepka, who is third for strokes gained tee to green on the PGA Tour, is a confident selection and should be hard to keep out of the frame at 16/1.
Dustin Johnson appears to have been overlooked for the final major of the year but the world number one should be included in the staking plan at generous odds. Johnson was in sensational form in the second half of last year as he clinched his second major title at the Masters. DJ has failed to hit those heights in 2021 but it should not be forgotten he won the Saudi International back in February. His last three tournaments have all resulted in top 25 finishes and Johnson is not far away from returning to the dominant form of last year.
Johnson will return to the scene of his best performance at the Open Championship this week. Without a major victory and ranked 11th in the world in 2011, Johnson contended strongly at Royal St George's as he tied for second place. He heads back to Sandwich a much more complete player and will be relishing the chance to go one better on the Kent coast. Johnson is listed as sixth favourite and a bigger price than Xander Schauffele - a player without a win since 2019. DJ has won five of his last 24 events since last June. Johnson appears to have been wrongly dismissed at 22/1 and can make a mockery of those odds by lifting the Claret Jug.
Branden Grace has looked a potential Open champion for a number of years and could contend for the Claret Jug this week in England. The South African has a low ball flight which is ideally suited to playing in breezy conditions. Grace has won the Dunhill Links and his best Open finish was sixth at the 2017 edition at Birkdale, which featured a record breaking major round of 62.
Grace won the Puerto Rico Open at the start of this year at another wind-affected coastal track. His form has continued to trend in the right direction with fourth place at last month's Memorial before taking seventh spot at the US Open. Grace knocked off the rust last weekend at the Scottish Open and two solid weekend rounds in the 60s set him up nicely for Royal St George's. The nine-time European Tour winner is very comfortable on links terrain and it would be no surprise if he features on the leaderboard at 50/1.
Marc Leishman has gone close at the Open several times and the Australian can finally get his hands on the Claret Jug this weekend. Leishman's nearest miss was at the 2015 edition at St Andrews, losing in a three-way playoff to Zach Johnson. His ability to handle windy conditions has aided his challenge at this major and Leishman was also fifth at Royal Liverpool in 2014 and sixth in England at Birkdale in 2017.
After a delay in his clubs reaching him in Kent, Leishman has been reunited with his beloved driver and is bullish about his chances. The 37-year-old insists this is the most confident he has been heading into a major for years and a bold challenge this week looks likely. Fifth place at this year's Masters was an impressive performance and Leishman, who won the pairs event at the Zurich Classic in the spring, comes in off third place at the Travelers Championship. The Open looks his best opportunity of winning a major and Leishman has the game to tough it out at Sandwich and threaten the each way places at 60/1.
Harris English heads into the Open off the back of a victory and could contend at tempting odds this weekend in Kent. English suffered a huge loss of form and confidence for several years but completed his resurgence at the start of this year by winning the Tournament of Champions on the coast in Hawaii. The 31-year-old clinched his fourth PGA Tour title a couple of weeks ago by winning a marathon playoff at the Travelers Championship.
English finished third at last month's US Open and appears to be timing his run perfectly for a challenge at Royal St George's. The Ryder Cup hopeful is swinging superbly and absolutely loves links golf. English, who finished 15th in 2013 at Muirfield, believes the Open is his strongest chance of winning a major and is comfortable playing in the wind. Ranked ninth this season for scrambling, English can handle the elements and contend at Royal St George's at 66/1 each way.
The Open often throws up a shock result and it is worth including a couple of outstanding veterans at big prices. Phil Mickelson produced an extraordinary performance at this year's PGA Championship as he became the oldest major champion at the age of 50. It was a remarkable display from Lefty as he clinched his sixth major title amid euphoric scenes at Kiawah Island. A quick follow up triumph at Sandwich cannot be ruled out.
Mickelson won the Open at Muirfield in 2013 and has developed into one of the best links performers over the last decade. He pushed Henrik Stenson all the way after their thrilling duel five years ago at Royal Troon. Mickelson also contended here at Royal St George's after a final round charge in 2011, as he tied for second place. His experience and ability to produce a low ball flight is invaluable at this championship and Mickelson could produce more major magic on the coast at 100/1.
Another outsider worth backing is Stewart Cink. The 48-year-old has enjoyed a brilliant renaissance over the last year and looks capable of challenging for a second major victory. Cink dashed the fairytale story of Tom Watson winning at Turnberry in 2009 after prevailing in the playoff. It was surprising Cink went 11 years after this without a win but ended the drought last September at the Safeway Open.
Cink's long overdue success has sparked a resurgence and he added another title back in the spring after a dominant win at the RBC Heritage. The American has added some length to his game and the decision to put his son Reagan on the bag as his caddie has proved inspired. Cink, who has made his last eight cuts, ranks seventh this season for greens in regulation. He will not be fazed by the forecast gusts and steady Cink can plot his way into contention at 140/1 each way.
Staking Plan
Brooks Koepka 3pts 16/1 each way
Dustin Johnson 2.5pts 22/1 each way
Branden Grace 1pt 50/1 each way
Marc Leishman 1pt 60/1 each way
Harris English 1pt 66/1 each way
Phil Mickelson 0.5pts 100/1 each way
Stewart Cink 0.5pts 140/1 each way
